Here’s how a conversation went between myself and someone who will remain nameless. Let’s call him “Blind Optimist” (BO).
BO is of the mindset that the economy will always trend upwards, that there will always be a new technology and new sources of energy to push civilization onwards and expand our global population without any worry of negative side-effects.
I don’t know how we got on the subject but we were talking about the economy and how uncertain the future is. I said something to the effect of “this will be a prolonged downturn unlike any other we have seen”. BO’s opinion was that the economy ebbs and flows up and down and will always recover a temporary downturn to higher than the previous economic level.
I don’t disagree that this is how things have played out for the past 200 years. But what he couldn’t imagine was the concept of finite resources. Substitution can work for a while but only until the resources you need have no readily available alternative. The population boom and changing demographics accelerates this pace.
As we all know, it’s important that our economy continue to grow. Even when it plateaus we see mass panic in the markets. The significance of Peak Oil or any other threat to continued growth should not be underestimated because of the turmoil stagnant economies can create. There are “Occupy x” protests in the streets over it already and the US government is getting ready for further civil unrest.
I can’t blame BO for his blind optimism. He has good reason to believe what has happened in the past 200 years would continue. BO doesn’t care about big picture issues, there’s enough to worry about in our daily lives. However, the astute economy-followers, investigative journalists and big-picture thinkers are more likely to be correct in turning observed trends into a picture of the future. I try to pay attention to these folks.
Here is an incomplete list of Peakers/Doomers/Economy buffs I sometimes read:
Nicole Foss, The Automatic Earth
Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
Chris Martensen
Michael Ruppert, CollapseNet
For local solutions and inspiration:
Transition Ottawa / Transition Network / Robert Hopkins
Becoming Minimalist
the list above
my son...
BO is of the mindset that the economy will always trend upwards, that there will always be a new technology and new sources of energy to push civilization onwards and expand our global population without any worry of negative side-effects.
I don’t know how we got on the subject but we were talking about the economy and how uncertain the future is. I said something to the effect of “this will be a prolonged downturn unlike any other we have seen”. BO’s opinion was that the economy ebbs and flows up and down and will always recover a temporary downturn to higher than the previous economic level.
I don’t disagree that this is how things have played out for the past 200 years. But what he couldn’t imagine was the concept of finite resources. Substitution can work for a while but only until the resources you need have no readily available alternative. The population boom and changing demographics accelerates this pace.
As we all know, it’s important that our economy continue to grow. Even when it plateaus we see mass panic in the markets. The significance of Peak Oil or any other threat to continued growth should not be underestimated because of the turmoil stagnant economies can create. There are “Occupy x” protests in the streets over it already and the US government is getting ready for further civil unrest.
I can’t blame BO for his blind optimism. He has good reason to believe what has happened in the past 200 years would continue. BO doesn’t care about big picture issues, there’s enough to worry about in our daily lives. However, the astute economy-followers, investigative journalists and big-picture thinkers are more likely to be correct in turning observed trends into a picture of the future. I try to pay attention to these folks.
Here is an incomplete list of Peakers/Doomers/Economy buffs I sometimes read:
Nicole Foss, The Automatic Earth
Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
Chris Martensen
Michael Ruppert, CollapseNet
For local solutions and inspiration:
Transition Ottawa / Transition Network / Robert Hopkins
Becoming Minimalist
the list above
my son...
1 comment:
I agree with all of what you are saying, but I disagree with the notion that economic growth is good, even the beneficiaries, that's us in the west, suffer it's side effects. As you state we do have finite resources, but beyond those running out all this growth has and still does create pollution and is based on a global economic system that takes advantage of despicable labour practices and abhorrent environmental standards in the third world. It is because of our lifestyles and the notion growth is good that we interfere and war with non-western nations. The IMF, World Bank, NATO and unfortunately the U.N. are directed by neo-liberal and predatory capitalist ideologies which cause suffering of millions around the world. One only needs to look at recent conflicts in Iraq, Libya and Syria to see that it is resources that drive western interference, and if resources do not exist in quantities that provide substantial profit, then 100's of thousands of people will burn, and the West will barely flinch. Our high standard of living depends on taking advantage of others. I think you likely recognize this, I just had to address the statement "growth is good", growth will be the death of us, it's not good.
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