The Blind Optimist

Here’s how a conversation went between myself and someone who will remain nameless.  Let’s call him “Blind Optimist” (BO).  

BO is of the mindset that the economy will always trend upwards, that there will always be a new technology and new sources of energy to push civilization onwards and expand our global population without any worry of negative side-effects.  

I don’t know how we got on the subject but we were talking about the economy and how uncertain the future is.  I said something to the effect of “this will be a prolonged downturn unlike any other we have seen”.  BO’s opinion was that the economy ebbs and flows up and down and will always recover a temporary downturn to higher than the previous economic level.  

I don’t disagree that this is how things have played out for the past 200 years.  But what he couldn’t imagine was the concept of finite resources.  Substitution can work for a while but only until the resources you need have no readily available alternative.  The population boom and changing demographics accelerates this pace.

As we all know, it’s important that our economy continue to grow.  Even when it plateaus we see mass panic in the markets.  The significance of Peak Oil or any other threat to continued growth should not be underestimated because of the turmoil stagnant economies can create.  There are “Occupy x” protests in the streets over it already and the US government is getting ready for further civil unrest.

I can’t blame BO for his blind optimism.  He has good reason to believe what has happened in the past 200 years would continue.  BO doesn’t care about big picture issues, there’s enough to worry about in our daily lives.  However, the astute economy-followers, investigative journalists and big-picture thinkers are more likely to be correct in turning observed trends into a picture of the future.  I try to pay attention to these folks.  

Here is an incomplete list of Peakers/Doomers/Economy buffs I sometimes read:

Nicole Foss, The Automatic Earth
Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
Chris Martensen
Michael Ruppert, CollapseNet

For local solutions and inspiration:

Transition Ottawa / Transition Network / Robert Hopkins
Becoming Minimalist
the list above
my son...

Economic Sustainability

As a followup to my post on sustainability I'd like to talk about economic sustainability, both on a macro level and on an individual level.  (Disclaimer: I'm not an economist, but I do read a fair bit).  Over the past few years I've learned how susceptible we are to our fragile global financial system.    Our globalization push has tightly linked our economy to others, making an inter-dependent network susceptible to a cascading failure.  It's playing out right now. The US, Canadian and several European countries are deeply in dept, some are literally on the brink (Greece).

Continuous Growth Is Not Possible

Why are we witnessing such turbulent times?  Could it be the basis of our commerce and banking systems are flawed?  Our current economic model is predicated on consistent growth, quarter after quarter, on a planet with finite resources.  Not only that, but, the basic mindset we have been fed is that growth is good - it's the goal.  The bottom line is what matters and the invisible hand of the market will benefit all.  In reality we have a few very large and powerful companies controlling most of the wealth in the world.  Corporations, "banksters", and politicians act in concert to make sure the rich get richer.

What we need is a steady state economic model, [steadystate.org], one focused on improved quality of life, rather than accumulation of stuff.  There is a great TED video on a "happy planet index" suggested by Nic Marks as a substitute for GDP. It's inspiring and it just makes sense!

Bailouts galore

Part of supporting the rich is making sure certain industries don't fail.  Watch "Overdose - the next financial crisis"[Youtube].   It outlines a history of bubbles and bailouts starting with the dot-com bust, to the automakers bust and bailout, and the banking industry bailout.  The taxpayer really has been fleeced over the years.  It's one reason the poor can't get ahead.  In the film they postulate that the next financial collapse will involve many countries around the world and rival all previous crashes.

Another great resource is Chris Martensen's "Crash Course" - a series of short instructional videos on everything from fiat currency to fractional reserve banking, peak oil and climate change.  The "Three E's" of Economy, Environment and Energy - highly recommended as a layperson's intro to these intersecting topics.

Personal Economic Resilience

I've only peeked behind the curtain and got a glimpse of what is really going on in the world.  It's not pretty.  To prepare for the inevitable next economic crisis one can only become more self-reliant.  It's a good idea to take some precautions and Build a Lifeboat, as Stoneleigh describes at The Automatic Earth. Key to that are reducing debt and growing savings, eliminating needless expenses, keeping some cash on hand and increasing liquidity.  Friends, family and community are important, especially in tough times, so position yourself geographically close to your support circles.  Find a few sources of food other than the supermarkets.  Membership to a CSA is one option.  You'll be healthier and better off for it.

All of these things are better done well before the collapse.  Like a good boyscout, be prepared. Consider how you might handle a job loss or market crash.  Could you get by, at least for a little while?  Add some sustainability to your own economic situation. I've been pondering these questions myself and I feel better knowing that we're making changes in our lives to become more financially resilient.  We're in the process of downsizing.  We're saving more, and reducing household expenses.  After spending some time tracking expenses, we were able to see where our money was going each month, and where we could focus on reduction.  But we don't deprive ourselves - for example we visited a spa the other week for some much-needed relaxation.

Like so many other aspects of our lives, becoming financially resilient is a work in progress.

About this site and Sustainability

Towards Sustainability, or To Sustainability for short, is all about taking steps to be more self-sufficient.  I wanted a place to share my experiments in sustainability so this is it.  You might think the topics on here have gone outside the original scope of sustainability but they haven't.  It all depends on how you define sustainability.

Are my bike projects 'sustainable'?  Bike riding certainly is, and I'd argue that bike building is also sustainable as long as there are old bikes to re-purpose.  Building bikes is a skill I am developing - part of my DIY portfolio I guess.  The more things I can learn to do, the better off I'll be when times get hard.  Knowing how to build and maintain pedal-powered vehicles will help me out now and in the future.  Learning to weld is a good thing too, since a lot of the metal "stuff" out there will need fixing.

Sustainability Defined

Sustainability is the ability of something to persist.  For example, by its inherent nature, the oil industry is not sustainable.  There is a finite amount of oil in the earth and since we're past the peak, all remaining barrels get more and more costly to produce.  The effort and cost of producing a barrel of oil will soon equal a barrel of oil and make recovering the last barrels pointless.

Examples of sustainable systems could include properly managed gardens and farms, any living process found in nature, any harvesting practice that does not consume more of a particular resource than can be naturally replenished (forestry, water, soil, etc), and any human activities that do not negatively impact future generations.

Resilience

In the face of Peak Oil, and the collapse of any industry dependent on cheap oil, the best thing a person can do is add resilience to their lives.  Resilience is the ability of a system to withstand shocks.  Resiliency is a characteristic of sustainable systems and adding resilience to our lives makes our lives more sustainable.

The four major areas to which we should add resilience are: Food, Shelter, Energy and Transportation.  (Economic Sustainability is a whole other topic for a future post).

Food security is something most of us well-off North Americans don't think much about.  But what if the food transportation system suddenly ground to a halt because of skyrocketing fuel prices?  Other tragedies could occur that could also disrupt the delivery system and leave supermarket shelves empty for extended periods.  It's really a fragile system and most stores wouldn't last 3 days without a delivery. Having an alternative food source is extremely important and it doesn't mean we all have to become farmers.  Other options include joining a CSA (Community Supported Agriculture), befriending a farmer or two, buying direct from local farms, or planting a small garden.  We've lost touch with where our food comes from and local food is so much healthier for us.

Shelter: This ties in with energy and transportation.  If you live far from where you work, and rely on a gas powered vehicle to get around, then you are susceptible to rising fuel costs.  If your house is drafty or it requires a lot of maintenance, then you've got opportunities to improve.  Buildings consume a huge amount of energy.  The best option is to follow the German Passive House standard for any new builds or retrofits which will save more energy than any other building standard.

Energy: The cost of energy is only going to rise.  So the first line of defence is to consume less.  It is 30% easier to reduce consumption than it is to increase production. The cost of renewables is continuing to drop.  Regardless if you go off-grid or live in the city, we all can benefit from some form of renewable energy generation and low-energy-consuming appliances.

Transportation: To add resilience to your transportation options consider not moving around so much.  We've become a spoiled, mobile society.  Live-work-play in the same general area rather than sitting in traffic for a good part of the day.  Car ownership costs on average $8,000 per year.  Many people only need a vehicle for long distance trips.  In this case a small electric vehicle, electric bike, or public transit could work for the daily commute while car rentals are used for the occasional trip.  This puts the cost of car ownership, maintenance, insurance and registration on the rental company.  You also can use a car sharing service like VrtuCar or CommunAuto.

There are many options to add resilience to your life.  I'm trying to move in that direction myself with my family.  It's a gradual process but I'm having fun learning and sharing my experiences so others can benefit too.  I welcome your comments.